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Summary

Although the Social Security system is now running surpluses of income over outgo, its board of trustees projects that its trust funds would be depleted in 2042 and only 73% of its benefits would be payable then with incoming receipts. The trustees project that on average the system's cost would be 14% higher than its income over the next 75 years; by 2080 it would be 50% higher. The primary reason is demographic: the post- World War II baby boomers will begin retiring in less than a decade and life expectancy is rising. Between 2000 and 2025 the number of people age 65 and older is predicted to grow by 76%. In contrast, the number of workers supporting the system would grow by 16%. <p> The trustees project that Social Security's surplus of taxes and interest will cause the system's trust funds, comprised exclusively of federal bonds, to grow to a peak of $7.5 trillion in 2027. The system's outgo thereafter would exceed its income and the trust funds would be drawn down until their depletion. However, the trustees project that the system's taxes by themselves would fall below its outgo beginning in 2018. At that point, other federal receipts would be needed to help pay for benefits (by providing cash as the federal bonds held by the trust funds are redeemed). If there are no other surplus governmental receipts, policymakers would have three choices: raise taxes or other income, cut spending, or borrow the money. <p> This adverse outlook is reflected in public opinion polls showing that fewer than 50% of respondents are confident that Social Security can meet its long-term commitments. There also is a growing perception that Social Security may not be as good a value in the future. These concerns and a belief that the nation must increase its national savings have led to proposals to revamp the system. <p> Others suggest that the system's problems are not as serious as its critics claim. They argue that it is now running surpluses, that the public still likes it, and that there is risk in some of the new reform ideas. They contend that only modest changes are needed. <p> Today, the ideas range from restoring solvency with minimal changes to scrapping the system entirely for something modeled after IRAs or 401(k)s. This broad spectrum was clearly reflected in the report of a 1997 Social Security Advisory Council. Three very different plans were presented, none of which received a majority's endorsement. Similar diversity is reflected in the many reform bills introduced in the 105th, 106th, 107th and 108th Congresses. In his last three years in office, former President Clinton also highlighted the issue. He proposed using the Social Security portion of then-projected budget surpluses to buy down the federal debt while crediting the system with the reductions - what effectively would be general fund infusions to the system. <p> During the 2000 Presidential campaign, President Bush stated that he favored allowing workers to put some of their Social Security taxes in personal accounts where they could invest in stocks if they so desired. He later appointed a commission to make recommendations to reform Social Security. The commission issued a report on December 21, 2001, which includes three options to reform the program. All options feature individual accounts.

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