RL31339
Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
July 21, 2008
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Summary
The Administration is claiming success in reversing the deterioration in security that had become acute by the end of 2006, attributing the gains to a "troop surge" strategy announced by President Bush on January 10, 2007 ("New Way Forward"). The centerpiece of the strategy was the deployment of an additional 28,500 U.S. forces to help stabilize Baghdad and to take advantage of growing tribal support for U.S. policy in Anbar Province. Defense Department assessments in June 2008 said that overall violence is down as much as 80% since early 2007, to levels not seen since 2004, but that progress can be "fragile and tenuous" if not accompanied by national reconciliation and economic development. The Administration argues that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is increasingly recognized as capable, and that Iraqi legislative action in Iraq since the beginning of 2008 represents a substantial measure of the progress on political reconciliation that was envisioned by the surge. Going forward, the Administration believes that the current strategy -- "conditions-based" gradual reductions in U.S. forces and continued building of Iraq's security forces -- is likely to produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. The progress comes after several years of frustration that Operation Iraqi Freedom had overthrown Saddam Hussein's regime, only to see Iraq wracked during 2004-2007 by violence caused by Sunni Arab resentment and a related insurgency, resulting Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence, competition among Shiite groups, and the failure of Iraq's government to equitably administer justice or deliver services. Mounting U.S. casualties and financial costs -- without clear movement toward national political reconciliation ? stimulated debate within the United States over whether the initial goals of the intervention -- a stable, democratic Iraq that is a partner in the global war on terrorism -- could ever be achieved, and, if so, at what cost. Critics differ with the degree of progress, particularly on political reconciliation. Provincial council elections, originally planned for October 1, 2008, are likely to be held at the end of 2008. There are growing splits within the Sunni Arab and the Shiite Arab communities, and the Kurds are increasingly restive over repeated delays in a referendum that they hope would bring Kirkuk province into the Kurdish-controlled region. Some in Congress believe that the noted security progress is unsustainable without high levels of U.S. forces, and that winding down U.S. combat involvement in Iraq would compel Iraqi leaders to reach needed political compromises. Partly because there is a perception that the troop surge is succeeding, there has not been the required level of support in Congress to mandate a troop withdrawal, a timetable for withdrawal, or a significant change in U.S. strategy, although there is growing support for compelling Iraq to fund key functions now funded by the United States. This report is updated regularly. See also CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Reconciliation and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL31833, Iraq: Reconstruction Assistance, by Curt Tarnoff; and CRS Report RL33793, Iraq: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy, coordinated by Christopher Blanchard.
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Related Legislation:
- S.80
- S.2196
