RL31339
Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
August 12, 2008
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Summary
The Administration is claiming success in significantly reducing violence in Iraq to the point where additional U.S. troop reductions can be considered, attributing the gains to a "troop surge" announced by President Bush on January 10, 2007 ("New Way Forward"). With almost all of the 28,500 "surge" forces withdrawn as of July 2008, Defense Department reports assess that overall violence is down as much as 80% since early 2007, to levels not seen since 2004, but that progress can be "fragile and tenuous" if not accompanied by national reconciliation and economic development. The Administration believes that additional "conditions-based" reductions in U.S. forces, continued building of Iraq's security forces, and likely further political progress in Iraq -- is now likely to produce a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. The Administration argues that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is increasingly recognized as capable, and that Iraqi legislative action in Iraq since the beginning of 2008 represents a substantial measure of the progress on political reconciliation that was envisioned would be facilitated by the surge. However, Maliki's growing confidence and insistence on a timeline for a U.S. withdrawal is complicating negotiations on a U.S.-Iraq agreement that would govern the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq. The progress comes after several years of frustration that Operation Iraqi Freedom had overthrown Saddam Hussein's regime, only to see Iraq wracked during 2004-2007 by violence caused by Sunni Arab resentment and a related insurgency, resulting Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence, competition among Shiite groups, and the failure of Iraq's government to equitably administer justice or deliver services. Mounting U.S. casualties and financial costs -- without clear movement toward national political reconciliation -- stimulated debate within the United States over whether the initial goals of the intervention -- a stable, democratic Iraq that is a partner in the global war on terrorism -- could ever be achieved, and at what cost. Critics differ with the degree of progress, particularly on political reconciliation. Provincial council elections, originally planned for October 1, 2008, are now unlikely to be held in 2008 because a split between the Kurds and Iraq's Arabs over the status of Kirkuk prevented passage of a needed election law before the parliament recessed on August 1, 2008. Some in Congress believe that the noted security progress is unsustainable without high levels of U.S. forces, and that winding down U.S. combat involvement in Iraq would compel Iraqi leaders to reach needed remaining political compromises. Partly because there is a perception that the troop surge is succeeding, there has not been the required level of support in Congress to mandate a troop withdrawal, a timetable for withdrawal, although there is growing support for compelling Iraq to fund key functions now funded by the United States. This report is updated regularly. See also CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Reconciliation and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL31833, Iraq: Reconstruction Assistance, by Curt Tarnoff; and CRS Report RL33793, Iraq: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy, coordinated by Christopher Blanchard.
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Related Legislation:
- S.80
- S.2196
