RL31339
Iraq: Post-Saddam Governance and Security
November 19, 2008
Download Locations
Summary
The Bush Administration has claimed substantial success in significantly reducing violence in Iraq as a result of the "troop surge" announced by President Bush on January 10, 2007 ("New Way Forward"). With the 28,500 "surge" forces withdrawn as of July 2008, Defense Department reports assess that overall violence is down as much as 80% since early 2007, to levels not seen since 2004. Presidentelect Obama has indicated that stabilizing Afghanistan should be a higher priority for the United States than Iraq, but U.S. commanders say that progress in Iraq is "fragile and tenuous" and could unravel if there is too rapid a draw-down. They recommend measured, incremental "conditions-based" reductions in U.S. forces and continued building of Iraq's security forces, until further political progress produces a unified, democratic Iraq that can govern and defend itself and is an ally in the war on terror. While commanders remain cautious on further U.S. force drawdowns, Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki is increasingly recognized as politically strong and capable, and Iraqi legislative action in Iraq since the beginning of 2008 represents a substantial measure of the progress on political reconciliation that the surge was designed to facilitate. Provincial council elections, considered crucial to further reconciliation, are set for January 31, 2009 under a newly passed election law. Yet, there are growing tensions between the Shiite-dominated government and those Sunni leaders and fighters who have been key to stabilizing large parts of Iraq, as well as continued concerns over the degree to which the Shiite faction of Moqtada Al Sadr will integrate into the political process. Tensions are increasing significantly between the Iraqi Kurds and Iraq's Arab leaders over Kurdish demands for control of disputed areas and energy development in the Kurdish areas. At the same time, the growing government confidence held up finalizing a U.S.-Iraq agreement that would govern the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq beyond December 2008. A draft approved by the Iraqi cabinet on November 16, and now before Iraq's parliament, mandates a timetable for a full U.S. withdrawal by the end of 2011. The progress in 2008 comes after several years of frustration that Operation Iraqi Freedom had overthrown Saddam Hussein's regime, only to see Iraq wracked by a violence Sunni Arab-led insurgency, resulting Sunni-Shiite sectarian violence, competition among Shiite groups, and the failure of Iraq's government to equitably administer justice or deliver services. Mounting U.S. casualties and financial costs -- without clear movement toward national political reconciliation -- stimulated debate within the 110th Congress over whether a stable Iraq could ever be achieved, and at what cost. With a withdrawal timetable now set, there is growing U.S. support for compelling Iraq to fund key functions now funded by the United States. This report is updated regularly. See also CRS Report RS21968, Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks, by Kenneth Katzman; CRS Report RL31833, Iraq: Reconstruction Assistance, by Curt Tarnoff; and CRS Report RL33793, Iraq: Regional Perspectives and U.S. Policy, coordinated by Christopher Blanchard.
-
Related Legislation:
- S.80
- S.2196
