RL31448
Nuclear Arms Control: The Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty
December 30, 2008

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Summary

On May 24, 2002, President Bush and Russia?s President Putin signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (known as the Moscow Treaty) that will reduce strategic nuclear weapons to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads by December 31, 2012. The U.S. Senate gave its advice and consent to ratification on March 6, 2003; the Russian Duma did the same on May 14, 2003. The Treaty entered into force on June 1, 2003. Russia entered the negotiations seeking a ?legally binding document? that would contain limits, definitions, counting rules and elimination rules that resembled those in the START Treaties. Russia also wanted the new Treaty to contain a statement noting U.S. missile defenses would not undermine the effectiveness of Russia?s offensive forces. The United States preferred a less formal process in which the two nations would state their intentions to reduce their nuclear forces, possibly accompanied by a document outlining added monitoring and transparency measures. Furthermore, the United States had no intention of including restrictions on missile defenses in an agreement outlining reductions in strategic offensive nuclear weapons. Russia convinced the United States to sign a legally binding treaty, but the United States rejected any limits and counting rules that would require the elimination of delivery vehicles and warheads removed from service. It wanted the flexibility to reduce its forces at its own pace, and to restore warheads to deployed forces if conditions warranted. The Treaty contains four substantive Articles. The first limits each side to 1,700-2,200 strategic nuclear warheads, but states that the parties can determine the structure of their forces themselves. The second states that START I remains in force; the parties can use that Treaty?s verification regime to monitor reductions under the new Treaty. The third established a bilateral implementation commission and the fourth sets December 31, 2012, for the Treaty?s expiration and notes that either party can withdraw on three months notice. Under the new Treaty, the United States is likely to retain most of the delivery vehicles planned for START II, which would have limited each side to 3,500 warheads. But the United States will remove additional warheads from deployed forces and leave out of its tally warheads that could be deployed on systems in overhaul or assigned to conventional missions. Russia is likely to eliminate many of its existing ballistic missiles and submarines, retaining perhaps a few hundred multiple warhead ICBMs and fewer than 10 ballistic missile submarines. According to official and unofficial reports, both sides have implemented the Treaty smoothly. However, they have not held all the planned consultations, as there has been little to discuss. Instead, the two nations have begun to hold discussions about the 2009 expiration of the 1994 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START), which contains monitoring provisions that aid with verification of the Moscow Treaty. Russia has suggested that the two sides replace START with a new, formal Treaty that contains many of the same definitions and counting rules as START; the United States has suggested that the two sides reaffirm the structure of the Moscow Treaty and, possibly, add some cooperative monitoring measures to that document. The 111th Congress may have the opportunity to review and oversee these discussions. This report will be updated when events warrant.

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