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Summary

This report summarizes what is known from open sources about the North Korean nuclear weapons program -- including weapons-usable fissile material and warhead estimates -- and assesses current developments in verifying dismantlement of North Korea's nuclear facilities as agreed in the Six-Party Talks. The Six-Party Talks include the United States, South Korea, Japan, China, Russia, and North Korea, and were begun in August 2003 to attempt to resolve the current crisis over North Korean nuclear weapons. Beginning in late 2002, North Korea ended an eight-year freeze on its plutonium production program, expelled international inspectors, and restarted facilities. North Korea may have produced enough additional plutonium for five nuclear warheads since 2002. In total, it is estimated that North Korea has up to 50 kilograms of separated plutonium, enough for at least half a dozen nuclear weapons. On February 10, 2005, North Korea announced that it had manufactured nuclear weapons for selfdefense and that it would bolster its nuclear weapons arsenal. On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted a nuclear test, with a yield of under 1 kiloton. The United States and other countries condemned the test, and the United Nations Security Council passed Resolution 1718 on October 14, 2006, that requires North Korea to (1) refrain from nuclear or missile tests, (2) rejoin the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), and (3) abandon its weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missile programs. On February 13, 2007, North Korea reached an agreement with other members of the Six-Party Talks to begin the initial phase (60 days) of implementing the Joint Statement from September 2005 on denuclearization. Key components of the agreement include halting production at the Yongbyon nuclear complex and delivery of heavy fuel oil to North Korea. In July 2007, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors verified the shutdown of the Yongbyon facilities. On October 3, 2007, the Six Parties adopted a Joint Statement in which North Korea agreed to disable the Yongbyon facilities and provide a declaration of all its nuclear programs by December 31, 2007. The October 2007 statement said the United States would lead disablement activities and provide the initial funding for those activities. Much still remains to be confirmed regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons production capabilities and delivery systems, particularly regarding uranium enrichment. Although U.S. officials confronted the North Koreans in 2002 with intelligence that reportedly proved that Pyongyang was pursuing a uranium enrichment program, U.S. intelligence officials have said they do not know where the uranium program is based and have over time shown less confidence about what the scope of the program might be. Further, although seismographs registered the October 9, 2006, detonation and environmental sampling confirmed radioactivity, uncertainty about the weapon's design and sophistication remains. Additional transparency on fissile material stocks and programs, including the uranium enrichment program, may contribute to a better picture of North Korean nuclear weapons capabilities. This report will be updated as events warrant.

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