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Summary

October 2009 marks the fourth anniversary of the European Union's decision to proceed with formal negotiations with Turkey toward full membership in the Union. And, on October 15, the European Commission issued its fourth formal report on Turkey's accession progress. The Commission's 2009 report, like its previous reports, was marked by a mixed assessment of Turkey's accomplishments thus far in working through the various chapters of the accession process that have been opened. The report, while noting some progress in judicial reform and relations with the Kurds and Armenia, and little progress in other areas, contained nothing new or dramatic. The Commission, unlike some in Europe, did not view its 2009 report as any more significant or important than previous annual reports. For some in Europe, the focus now shifts to December 2009, when the EU Council must decide the next steps in the accession process. Many "Turkey-skeptics" see December as a deadline for Turkish action that could mark a critical juncture for the future of Europe's relationship with Turkey and perhaps force EU member states into a difficult debate pitting loyalty to another member state, being shunned by a candidate for Union membership, versus Europe's long-term strategic interests in Turkey. The principal issues regarding Turkey's accession center around what the EU believes has been too slow of a pace for certain critical reforms within Turkey; a perceived ambivalence toward the EU by the current Turkish leadership; Turkey's failure to live up to its agreement to extend the benefits of its customs union with the EU to Cyprus, including the continued reluctance by Turkey to open its sea and air ports to Cypriot shipping and commerce until a political settlement has been achieved on Cyprus; and a continued skepticism on the part of many Europeans about whether Turkey should be embraced as a member of the European family. Further complicating the attitude toward Turkey is the ongoing debate within parts of Europe over the implications of the growing Muslim population in Europe and the impact Turkey's admission into the Union would have on Europe's future. While unification talks have again resumed between Greek and Turkish Cypriots, a settlement by December remains elusive, and, short of such a settlement, Turkey appears unlikely to open its ports to Cyprus. Thus, the talk could once again be of "train wrecks," the suspension of negotiations, revised talk of a different relationship with Turkey, and renewed expressions of doubt over whether Turkey should ever be admitted into the Union. More likely, however, is that if the talks regarding a political settlement on Cyprus appear to be making some positive progress, critical for Turkey's prospects, the Council, after what could be a difficult debate, will defer any decisions regarding Turkey's accession negotiations to a later time. The U.S. Congress has long been supportive of Turkey's eventual membership in the European Union and President Obama, in his visit to Ankara in the spring, reiterated the U.S. government's continued support for Turkey's membership. For additional information on European Union enlargement, see CRS Report RS21344, European Union Enlargement, by Kristin Archick.

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